Today’s decision came without a fresh Monetary Policy Report — it was a decision-and-minutes-only meeting. The next full forecast round, with new growth and inflation projections, lands on 5 November.
The vote: dissent holds at three.
For the second meeting running, three of the nine MPC members — Huw Pill, Megan Greene and Catherine Mann — voted for an immediate quarter-point rise to 4%. The other six, including Governor Andrew Bailey, preferred to hold. That’s the same 6–3 split as July, but it follows a steady build-up in hawkish votes across 2026 — and the minutes suggest the committee’s underlying view has shifted further than the vote count alone shows.
MPC vote — 17 September 2026
Voted to hold (6)
- Andrew Bailey (Governor)
- Sarah Breeden
- Swati Dhingra
- Clare Lombardelli
- Dave Ramsden
- Alan Taylor
Voted to raise (3)
- Huw Pill (Chief Economist)
- Megan Greene
- Catherine Mann
How the vote has shifted through 2026
| Meeting | Result | Voted to raise | Voted to hold |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 June 2026 | 7–2 hold | Pill, Greene | Bailey, Breeden, Dhingra, Lombardelli, Mann, Ramsden, Taylor |
| 30 July 2026 | 6–3 hold | Pill, Greene, Mann | Bailey, Breeden, Dhingra, Lombardelli, Ramsden, Taylor |
| 17 September 2026 | 6–3 hold | Pill, Greene, Mann | Bailey, Breeden, Dhingra, Lombardelli, Ramsden, Taylor |
No further members moved camp this time — but the committee’s minutes judged inflation risks to be tilted further to the upside than they were at the July Monetary Policy Report, and said it stands ready to act if needed. Two of the six who held, Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor, put particular weight on continued slack in the jobs market as their reason for resisting a rise.
Why inflation is still climbing.
UK CPI rose to 3.1% in the year to August, up from 2.9% in July, driven mainly by energy and fuel costs linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Core and services inflation held broadly steady — services CPI was flat at 3.4% — which the Bank reads as early evidence that higher energy costs haven’t yet spread into wages and broader prices. Another rise in the Ofgem price cap lands in October, and the Bank’s own projections show CPI likely climbing further before it peaks.
Three years of base rate vs. swap rates.
Bank Rate (solid) vs. 2-year SONIA swap rate (dashed), September 2023 – September 2026. Source: Bank of England; swap rate points from AIB Treasury & Deloitte market data, indicative of periodic snapshots rather than a continuous daily series.
This is the chart that explains why fixed mortgage pricing hasn’t tracked the base rate hold. Swap rates — what lenders actually use to price fixed deals — fell well below Bank Rate through most of the 2024–2025 cutting cycle, which is why fixed rates kept drifting down even while the base rate was still comparatively high. Since the Middle East conflict began, that relationship has flipped: swaps jumped sharply from around 3.7% in January 2026 to above 4.5% by spring, running above the base rate itself and dragging fixed mortgage pricing up well ahead of any actual base rate move.
Impact on mortgage rates.
| Mortgage type | Where it stands | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Tracker mortgage | Unchanged — tracker rates move directly with Bank Rate. | Stable |
| Standard Variable Rate (SVR) | Average SVR is around 7.13%, though it varies widely by lender — from roughly 6.3% up to 8.4%. | Stable |
| 2-year fixed rate | Averaging around 5.6%, sharply up from ~4.1% in June as swap rates repriced. | Watch closely |
| 5-year fixed rate | Averaging around 5.6–5.7%, a similar rise since early summer. | Watch closely |
| 10-year fixed rate | Remains elevated; some borrowers are locking in now against a possible further hike. | Uncertain |
What should borrowers do right now?
| Your situation | What to consider |
|---|---|
| On a tracker or SVR | Payments are unchanged after today’s hold. If you’re on an SVR — typically much higher than the best fixed deals — it’s worth speaking to a broker about fixing, especially with a hike still on the table. |
| Fixed deal ending in 3–6 months | You can usually lock in a new rate up to 6 months before your current deal expires. With three MPC members still backing a hike, reserving a rate now protects against any further rise before your renewal date. |
| First-time buyer | Getting a Mortgage in Principle now puts first-time buyer applicants in a strong position ahead of the November decision, and a broker can talk you through deposit size, affordability checks and which lenders suit your circumstances. |
| Self-employed | Self-employed borrowers often face stricter income verification, so today’s hold at least means no fresh affordability pressure this month. A whole-of-market broker can identify lenders more comfortable with self-employed income and recent accounts. |
| Adverse credit | Borrowers with adverse credit can still access competitive deals through specialist lenders — a broker who understands adverse credit mortgages can match you with the right product rather than a one-size-fits-all high-street rate. |
| Remortgaging later in 2026 | Watch the 5 November meeting closely — it carries a full Monetary Policy Report and press conference, and will tell us far more about the path ahead than today’s decision did. |
Whatever your situation
First-time buyer, self-employed, or dealing with adverse credit — Mortgage Locator can match you with a broker who specialises in it, free of charge. Use our free mortgage finder →
What commentators are saying.
The Intermediary
Mortgage industry reaction broadly welcomed the hold, with one broker commentator arguing that holding rates was the sensible call given how heavily elevated swap rates are already weighing on borrowers and developers, while acknowledging monetary policy “can only do so much” — deposit size, income and the right professional advice will matter more to what buyers can actually afford. Another intermediary voice noted that while a cut would have been preferable for borrowers, a hold at least avoids piling further pressure on affordability in the short term, with the real question now being how persistent the current inflationary pressures turn out to be.
Reuters poll, 8 September
A pre-meeting survey of 64 economists found nine in ten expected no change through the rest of 2026, with the Middle East conflict having pushed back expectations for the next cut into at least 2027.
Forecaster split
Views have genuinely diverged since the summer. Bank of America and Oxford Economics expect the hold to run into 2027, and ING sees 3.75% holding through year-end. Capital Economics, by contrast, judges the conflict has raised the odds of a rise at some point, and Interactive Investor’s Victoria Scholar expects roughly one quarter-point increase by year-end.
Goldman Sachs
Economist James Moberly expects UK inflation to peak around 3.3% in November — a touch higher than the Bank’s own forecast — before falling back faster than the Bank projects, arguing that current market pricing for further rate rises looks overdone and that a hold into 2027 followed by cuts remains more likely.
Current BOE base rate — 3.75% · Held 17 September 2026
- Last changed
- Dec 2025
- Last change
- ▼ Cut (−0.25%)
- MPC vote
- 6 hold, 3 hike
- UK inflation (Aug)
- 3.1% CPI
- Next meeting
- 5 Nov 2026 (MPR)
- Peak rate (Aug 2023)
- 5.25%
Important information
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Mortgage rate figures are indicative as at 17 September 2026 and change daily. MPC vote details and macroeconomic data sourced from publicly available Bank of England statements, ONS data and financial news reporting; swap rate figures are indicative, drawn from periodic market data snapshots rather than a continuous published series. Always speak to a qualified, FCA-regulated mortgage advisor — including specialist advisors for first-time buyer, self-employed or adverse credit circumstances — before making any decisions. Mortgage Locator is an introducer service.