The numbers at a glance.
Market-moving news.
Bank of England holds at 3.75% — but November is now a live hike decision
The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026 — the sixth consecutive hold since December 2025. The same three dissenters as last month — Catherine Mann, Megan Greene and Huw Pill — again voted for an immediate 25bp rise to 4%.
The majority held, but the MPC’s statement turned markedly more hawkish. It warned that if the Middle East conflict persists and the risk of second-round effects increases, “it is likely that policy may have to tighten.”
Crucially, the Bank upgraded its own CPI forecast — now projecting inflation will rise to “slightly above 4% in Q1 2027”, a significant upward revision from July’s 3.2% Q4 2026 peak. Markets are now pricing a rate rise at the 5 November meeting as the most likely outcome — the first time since the cutting cycle began that the direction of risk has shifted decisively upward.
The BOE also confirmed its Quantitative Tightening programme has reduced asset purchase holdings to £489bn (down from a peak of £895bn), with a new, more orderly annual reduction pace of £46bn out to 2034.
What this means for your mortgage
With three of nine MPC members already voting to hike, one more defection gives hawks a majority. November is a genuine live decision. Anyone on a tracker or SVR faces a real probability of their payment rising. Anyone with a fixed deal expiring in the next six months should be comparing rates now — before lenders price the anticipated hike in further.
CPI rises to 3.1% in August — highest since December 2025
ONS released August inflation data on 16 September — the day before the MPC decision. Headline CPI climbed to 3.1% (up from 2.9% in July), the highest reading since December 2025 and the third consecutive monthly rise.
Annual CPI rate vs BOE 2% target. Source: ONS, released 16 Sep 2026 (Aug data). Next release: 21 Oct 2026 (Sep data). Red = March Iran shock and the latest reading; darker gold = 2.8%+.
The main driver was transport — petrol hit an average of 169p/litre on 15 September, its highest level since the conflict began, with diesel at 191p/litre. Goods inflation climbed to 2.7% (highest since September 2025). Services inflation held at 3.6% for a second month — still above the level the MPC considers consistent with the 2% target. Core CPI (ex energy and food) was stable at 2.6%.
Looking ahead: Ofgem confirmed a further 4% energy price cap increase from 1 October. This will push October and November CPI meaningfully higher. The September CPI release on 21 October — just 15 days before the November MPC meeting — is the most important single data point of the autumn.
What this means for mortgage rates
With CPI at 3.1% and rising, the prospect of rate cuts in 2026 has completely evaporated. Fixed mortgage rates reflect where markets expect Bank Rate to go — and right now markets are pricing in a November hike. That is why lenders have been raising fixed rates aggressively throughout September even though the base rate has not moved.
Mortgage rates: all major lenders raise twice — swap rates surge above 4.7%
September 2026 has been the most disruptive month for fixed mortgage pricing since March. Swap rates — the wholesale benchmark that drives fixed-rate mortgages — climbed sharply as markets repriced for a potential November hike.
2-year swap rate vs average 5-year fixed mortgage rate, Feb to Sep 2026. Swap rates drive fixed mortgage pricing independently of the BOE base rate. Source: Moneyfacts / market data — indicative.
The 2-year swap rate rose from 3.33% in late February to above 4.70% by mid-September — a rise of more than 1.4 percentage points. All major lenders raised rates twice in September. The total impact: +£131/month (£1,572/year) on a £250,000 mortgage over 25 years compared to March 2026.
| Lender | What changed | Move |
|---|---|---|
| HSBC | Increased all residential and BTL fixed rates twice from 15 Sep — 2yr, 5yr, tracker across all LTVs. | ▲ +0.37pp (×2) |
| NatWest | Raised selected fixed rates. 2yr 60% LTV: 4.24% → 4.59%. New cashback up to £2,000 for FTBs. | ▲ +0.43pp (×2) |
| Santander | Increased rates and temporarily withdrew 60% LTV FTB products under £250k. | ▲ +0.45pp (×2) |
| Nationwide | Raised products by 0.35pp. No longer offers any sub-4% fixed rate deals. | ▲ +0.35pp (×2) |
| Barclays | Second round of increases. Leading 2yr fix: 4.55% → 4.75%. | ▲ +0.30pp (×2) |
| Halifax / TSB / Leeds BS | Further increases to FTB, home mover and remortgage rates in second wave. | ▲ Raised (×2) |
| Family Building Society | Temporarily withdrew entire fixed-rate range amid swap rate volatility. | ⚠ Withdrawn |
The direction of risk remains upward
With the MPC’s growing hawkish split and a November hike now priced in, the average SVR remains around 6.49–7%. The average 5-year fix is now 5.91% and the 2-year fix ~5.73%. If you’re on an SVR, the case for acting is stronger than at any point this year.
Rightmove: asking prices tick up — but only 6 in 10 homes find a buyer
On 21 September, Rightmove reported average asking prices rose 0.7% to £367,440 — the first monthly increase since May and slightly above the 10-year September average of 0.5%. The autumn bounce is welcome news for sellers, but the wider picture remains challenging:
- Prices are still 0.8% lower than a year ago and 2.3% below the start of summer.
- Homes for sale at a 12-year seasonal high — more supply than any September since 2014.
- Only 61% of homes listed find a buyer — down from 74% in 2021. In London, just 42% sell. Scotland: 91%.
- Buyer enquiries down 9% YoY; average time to find a buyer: 64 days.
- Rightmove full-year 2026 forecast revised to flat to −2% on asking prices.
For buyers
This is a genuine buyer’s market — high stock, price cuts, and 9% fewer competing buyers than a year ago. Getting a Mortgage in Principle now puts you in the strongest position to move quickly when you find the right property.
For sellers
Competitively priced homes are still selling — nearly three-quarters of homes that sold in 2026 did so without a price reduction. Price realistically from the outset rather than chasing the market down.
Autumn Budget — 29 October: what mortgage borrowers need to watch
The Chancellor is scheduled to deliver the Autumn Budget on 29 October 2026 — just seven days before the MPC’s November rate decision. It is the most consequential fiscal event of the year for the housing market, and several announcements could directly affect mortgage affordability and house prices.
Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) — The temporary First Time Buyer relief thresholds introduced in 2022 were renewed in Spring 2026, but only to March 2027. The Budget is expected to confirm whether they will be made permanent. If the Chancellor lets them lapse, first-time buyers purchasing between £300k and £425k will face an additional £6,250 in upfront costs, reducing affordability at precisely the moment mortgage rates are rising.
Mortgage Guarantee Scheme — The government’s 95% LTV MGS is currently extended to end-2026. Confirmation of a further extension (or successor scheme) is expected in the Budget. For buyers with smaller deposits — typically first-time buyers — this scheme underpins access to 95% LTV products at competitive rates. Without it, lenders reduce their 95% LTV ranges sharply.
Housing supply measures — Labour has a 1.5m homes-per-parliament target. The Budget may announce planning reform funding, new town designations, or updated infrastructure levy arrangements that affect the land acquisition and viability calculations underpinning housebuilder margins.
Capital Gains Tax (CGT) on property — No specific change is expected on residential CGT rates after last year’s Autumn Statement, but any movement would directly affect buy-to-let investors deciding whether to hold or exit. A landlord exit would push more rental properties onto the for-sale market, temporarily increasing supply.
ISA and savings reform — Any changes to the Lifetime ISA (LISA) withdrawal rules or house price cap (currently £450k, unchanged since 2017) would be directly relevant to first-time buyers in London and the South East where average prices regularly exceed the current cap.
What to watch on Budget day — 29 October
The three things that will move the mortgage market most: (1) whether SDLT thresholds are made permanent or allowed to lapse in March 2027; (2) whether the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme is extended beyond end-2026; and (3) any CGT changes affecting buy-to-let landlords. The SDLT decision in particular could cause a sharp rush to complete before the March deadline — replicating the frenzied market conditions seen in March 2021 and March 2025.
Top 5 UK housebuilders — share price & news.
All five are named defendants in the £4.5bn CAT class action filed July 2026. Charts show indicative monthly closing prices Aug 2025–Sep 2026. Confirm live prices via the LSE. YTD falls reflect higher mortgage rates, build cost pressures, falling demand and legal uncertainty.
Barratt Redrow plc LSE: BTRW
FY2026 results (16 Sep): 17,667 completions (+5%), revenue £6.06bn, adjusted pre-tax profit £572.8m — beating the £540.3m market forecast. Net cash £772m. Forward sales 11,200 homes (£3.4bn) ahead of last year. Shares jumped +11.7% on results day. A £400m capital return for FY2027 was announced. FY2027 completions guidance was trimmed to 17,500–17,900 due to planning delays. Adjusted operating margin fell to 9.9% (from 10.5%).
⚠ CAT lawsuit: named FTSE 100 defendant in £4.5bn class action filed July 2026. Certification hearing expected autumn 2026. Shares fell 1.9% on 30 June announcement.
Persimmon plc LSE: PSN
JP Morgan’s top pick in the sector — named preferred stock citing lower average selling price (~£307k), making it more resilient to affordability pressure than peers. Order book up ~5% to £2.5bn, private ASPs up ~5%. RBC rates PSN “outperform” (1,750p target). Most resilient reservation rates in the current environment due to its lower price points.
⚠ CAT lawsuit: named defendant in £4.5bn class action filed July 2026. Shares fell 2.3% on 30 June announcement.
Taylor Wimpey plc LSE: TW.
Downgraded to “underweight” by JP Morgan, with 2027 estimates 15% below consensus. Most exposed to the South of England where affordability is most stretched — order book pricing “c.1% lower year on year.” The most-downgraded stock in the sector across Berenberg, Goldman Sachs and Morningstar. Build cost inflation running at low-to-mid single digits further compresses already tight margins.
⚠ CAT lawsuit: named defendant in £4.5bn class action filed July 2026.
Bellway plc LSE: BWY
Bellway updated the market in August 2026, with focus on whether it can protect its dividend as softer reservations, build-cost pressure and land investment compete for cash. Private reservations have dipped to 151 per week from 161 year-on-year. LSEG analyst consensus rates Bellway as a “buy” — citing its track record of operational delivery and strong balance sheet. However, the near-term demand environment is clearly softening.
⚠ CAT lawsuit: named defendant in £4.5bn class action filed July 2026.
Berkeley Group Holdings LSE: BKG
Berkeley’s London and South East focus has become its most acute vulnerability in 2026. Goldman Sachs initiated at “sell”, pointing to constrained medium-term earnings growth. Most significantly, Berkeley halted land buying outright — the most explicit signal in the sector that conditions are not yet right for new site investment. Buyers are “delaying decisions despite stable enquiries.” Only builder to formally acknowledge the class action publicly.
⚠ CAT lawsuit: named defendant. Berkeley confirmed it is “aware of the claim” and declined further comment. Only builder to publicly acknowledge the action.
Dates to watch in October & November.
October is arguably the most consequential month for UK mortgage rates since the cutting cycle began. Every data release below feeds directly into the Bank of England’s 5 November decision — now a genuine live choice between hold and hike.
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1 October · Wednesday
Ofgem Q4 Energy Price Cap — +4% rise
Household energy bills rise again. Directly pushes headline CPI higher in October and November readings — the primary driver of the BOE’s forecast for inflation above 4% in Q1 2027.
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~14 October · Tuesday
ONS Labour Market Data
Wages and unemployment for Aug/Sep. If wage growth stays above 5%, MPC hawks will argue second-round effects are already taking hold — supporting their case for a November hike.
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21 October · Wednesday ★★
ONS CPI — September 2026
The single most important data release of the autumn. First reading to capture the Ofgem energy cap rise. Markets expect 3.2–3.5%+. A reading above 3.5% makes a November hike near-certain. Released 7am — just 15 days before the MPC meeting.
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~24 October · Friday
Rightmove October HPI
First asking price data after September’s further rate rises. Will buyers have pulled back further? A key early read on whether the market is holding up heading into November.
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29 October · Thursday ★★
Autumn Budget — Chancellor’s Statement
The most significant fiscal event of the year for mortgage borrowers. Key watch points: SDLT First Time Buyer thresholds — permanent or lapsing March 2027? Mortgage Guarantee Scheme — extended beyond end-2026? CGT on property — any change affecting buy-to-let landlords? The SDLT decision alone could trigger a rush to complete before March. Just 7 days before the MPC November rate decision.
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~31 October · Saturday
Nationwide October HPI
Sold-price data for October. Combined with Halifax and Zoopla, this gives the clearest picture of actual transaction market health heading into the November MPC decision.
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5 November · Thursday ★★★
BOE MPC Rate Decision + Monetary Policy Report
The most significant BOE meeting since December 2025. Hold vs hike is a live decision. Includes a full Monetary Policy Report with new 3-year forecasts. Fixed mortgage rates will move on the outcome and vote split — possibly before noon on the day.
★★ Three events in eight days that could reshape the mortgage market
21 October (CPI), 29 October (Autumn Budget) and 5 November (MPC) form the most consequential eight-day sequence for UK mortgage rates since the mini-Budget of September 2022. Lenders reprice in anticipation — not after. If CPI prints high on 21 Oct, most major lenders will raise rates before Budget day. If the Budget confirms SDLT thresholds lapsing in March, demand for January–March completions will surge. And if the MPC hikes on 5 November, SVR and tracker holders face an immediate payment rise. The window to lock in current pricing is October — not November.
Data sources: Bank of England, ONS, Rightmove, Moneyfacts, Zoopla, Bloomberg Intelligence, Barratt Redrow plc, company announcements and broker research. Share prices and swap rates are approximate and for illustrative purposes only; verify live prices at the LSE before making any investment decisions. This newsletter is provided for general information only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.